The Times Australia
The Times World News

.

As the conflicts in the Middle East dramatically escalate, could Iran acquire a nuclear bomb?

  • Written by Ali Mamouri, Research fellow, Middle East Studies, Deakin University



As Israel continues its assault on Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iran appears increasingly backed into a corner.

Israel’s efforts to weaken Iran’s proxy network have focused on a number of objectives: eliminating key Hezbollah leaders[1], destroying their weapons and other military sites, and targeting large numbers of fighters and sympathisers.

Hezbollah has undoubtedly been weakened over the past few weeks, which presents a dilemma for Iran. Could this sustained pressure on its main militant proxy group push Iran towards finally acquiring a nuclear weapon?

Iran’s deterrence strategy

The use of armed proxy networks as a deterrence strategy[2] is a well-known approach employed by countries worldwide.

Iran has successfully adopted this strategy for decades[3], starting with Hezbollah in Lebanon and extending to Palestinian militant groups such as Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza, various Iraqi militant factions, and Houthi rebels in Yemen.

This strategy[4] has allowed Iran to project power in the region and counter pressure from the United States, Israel and their allies, while deterring any direct military confrontation from its adversaries.

Both Iran and Israel have until recently appeared reluctant to engage in a full-scale war. Instead, they have adhered to certain rules of engagement in which they apply pressure on each other without escalating to all-out conflict. This is something neither side can afford.

Iran has long avoided direct confrontation with Israel, even when Israel has targeted its groups in Syria[5] and assassinated several Iranian nuclear scientists[6] over the past few decades[7].

Recently, however, this strategy has shifted. Feeling the impact of Israel’s prolonged assaults on its proxy network, Iran has responded by launching two direct missile attacks against Israel[8] in the past six months.

This indicates that as pressure on Iran’s proxies intensifies, Tehran may increasingly resort to alternative strategies to reestablish effective deterrence against Israel and its Western allies.

Some analysts believe[9] Israel may now be gaining what is called “escalation dominance” over Iran. As one group of experts has explained[10], this happens when one combatant escalates a conflict

in ways that will be disadvantageous or costly to the adversary while the adversary cannot do the same in return, either because it has no escalation options or because the available options would not improve the adversary’s situation.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed a “harsh response[11]” to Iran’s latest missile attack[12] against Israel in early October. This could push Iran further towards changing its deterrence strategy, particularly if Israel strikes Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Calls for a new nuclear strategy

With pressure growing on Iran’s leaders, the regime is now openly discussing[13] whether to declare a military nuclear program.

This would represent a major shift in Iranian policy. Iran has long maintained that its nuclear program is strictly for civilian purposes, with no intention of developing a military component. The US and its allies have contested[14] this assertion.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei at an exhibition of nuclear achievements.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei visiting an exhibition on Iran’s nuclear industry achievements in 2023. Iran's Supreme Leader Office handout/EPA

On October 8, the Iranian parliament announced[15] it had received draft legislation for the “expansion of Iran’s nuclear industry”, which will be discussed in parliament. The nature of this expansion is not yet known – it’s unclear whether it will include a military program. However, recent statements by Iranian officials suggest such an agenda.

Kamal Kharrazi, a senior politician and member of the Expediency Discernment Council, a high-ranking administrative assembly appointed by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, forewarned of a reconsideration of Iran’s nuclear program. In an interview[16] in May, he said:

Iran’s level of deterrence will be different if the existence of Iran is threatened. We have no decision to produce a nuclear bomb, but we will have to change our nuclear doctrine if such threat occurs.

Calls in Iran for a revision of the country’s defence doctrine are growing louder. This week, nearly 40 lawmakers wrote a letter to the Supreme National Security Council[17], which decides on Iran’s general security policy. They demanded the council reconsider the current nuclear policy, noting that Khamenei’s fatwa forbidding the production of a nuclear bomb could be subject to change due to current developments.

In the same vein, Ayatollah Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the founder of the Islamic revolution and former Supreme Leader Ruhollah Khomeini, called[18] last week for “enhancing the level of deterrence” against Israel. Iranian media interpreted this as referring to nuclear weapons.

There have also been reports speculating that an earthquake in Iran last week could actually have been a nuclear bomb test[19].

However, the US has said[20] there is no evidence yet[21] that Iran is moving towards building a nuclear weapon.

Revived nuclear deal increasingly unlikely

In 2015, Iran signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, plus Germany and the European Union. This deal allowed it to pursue a civilian nuclear program with certain restrictions on its critical nuclear facilities. In exchange, the US and its allies agreed to lift sanctions on Iran.

However, the US withdrew from the deal under then president Donald Trump in 2018 and reimposed sanctions on Iran. Since then, Iran has barred[22] several international inspectors from monitoring some of its nuclear sites.

It is now believed[23] to be just weeks away[24] from producing enough weapons-grade material to build a bomb.

Donald Trump holding up an executive order.
In this 2019 file photo, then-President Donald Trump holds up a signed executive order to increase sanctions on Iran. Alex Brandon/AP

Efforts to revive the nuclear negotiations have not gone far in recent years, though Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, has suggested[25] his government would be willing to engage again with the West and resume the talks.

Yet, if Israel carries out an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities[26] in retaliation for last week’s missile attack, as has been speculated, Iran may deem it necessary to opt for the weaponisation of its nuclear program instead.

If Iran declares a military nuclear program, it would do so with the expressed intention of restoring a deterrence balance with Israel that could prevent a full-scale war. Israel is believed[27] to possess nuclear weapons, but has never confirmed[28] it.

However, such a decision is likely to have dire implications for both Iran and the region.

It would undoubtedly lead to more international pressure and US sanctions on Iran, making it even more isolated. And it could spark a nuclear arms race in the region, as Saudi Arabia has already pledged[29] to pursue a nuclear arsenal if Iran develops one.

References

  1. ^ eliminating key Hezbollah leaders (www.abc.net.au)
  2. ^ armed proxy networks as a deterrence strategy (esoc.princeton.edu)
  3. ^ adopted this strategy for decades (doi.org)
  4. ^ strategy (carnegieendowment.org)
  5. ^ groups in Syria (www.aa.com.tr)
  6. ^ Iranian nuclear scientists (foreignpolicy.com)
  7. ^ past few decades (www.nytimes.com)
  8. ^ launching two direct missile attacks against Israel (theconversation.com)
  9. ^ believe (www.washingtonpost.com)
  10. ^ explained (www.jstor.org)
  11. ^ harsh response (www.timesofisrael.com)
  12. ^ latest missile attack (www.bbc.com)
  13. ^ openly discussing (www.newsweek.com)
  14. ^ contested (www.state.gov)
  15. ^ announced (www.irna.ir)
  16. ^ interview (www.bbc.com)
  17. ^ letter to the Supreme National Security Council (www.isna.ir)
  18. ^ called (www.newsweek.com)
  19. ^ could actually have been a nuclear bomb test (www.euronews.com)
  20. ^ has said (www.nbcnews.com)
  21. ^ no evidence yet (www.ft.com)
  22. ^ barred (apnews.com)
  23. ^ believed (www.ft.com)
  24. ^ weeks away (www.nbcnews.com)
  25. ^ suggested (donya-e-eqtesad.com)
  26. ^ attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities (www.nytimes.com)
  27. ^ believed (www.icanw.org)
  28. ^ never confirmed (www.timesofisrael.com)
  29. ^ pledged (amp.theguardian.com)

Read more https://theconversation.com/as-the-conflicts-in-the-middle-east-dramatically-escalate-could-iran-acquire-a-nuclear-bomb-240893

Times Magazine

DIY Is In: How Aussie Parents Are Redefining Birthday Parties

When planning his daughter’s birthday, Rich opted for a DIY approach, inspired by her love for drawing maps and giving clues. Their weekend tradition of hiding treats at home sparked the idea, and with a pirate ship playground already chosen as t...

When Touchscreens Turn Temperamental: What to Do Before You Panic

When your touchscreen starts acting up, ignoring taps, registering phantom touches, or freezing entirely, it can feel like your entire setup is falling apart. Before you rush to replace the device, it’s worth taking a deep breath and exploring what c...

Why Social Media Marketing Matters for Businesses in Australia

Today social media is a big part of daily life. All over Australia people use Facebook, Instagram, TikTok , LinkedIn and Twitter to stay connected, share updates and find new ideas. For businesses this means a great chance to reach new customers and...

Building an AI-First Culture in Your Company

AI isn't just something to think about anymore - it's becoming part of how we live and work, whether we like it or not. At the office, it definitely helps us move faster. But here's the thing: just using tools like ChatGPT or plugging AI into your wo...

Data Management Isn't Just About Tech—Here’s Why It’s a Human Problem Too

Photo by Kevin Kuby Manuel O. Diaz Jr.We live in a world drowning in data. Every click, swipe, medical scan, and financial transaction generates information, so much that managing it all has become one of the biggest challenges of our digital age. Bu...

Headless CMS in Digital Twins and 3D Product Experiences

Image by freepik As the metaverse becomes more advanced and accessible, it's clear that multiple sectors will use digital twins and 3D product experiences to visualize, connect, and streamline efforts better. A digital twin is a virtual replica of ...

The Times Features

Italian Street Kitchen: A Nation’s Favourite with Expansion News on Horizon

Successful chef brothers, Enrico and Giulio Marchese, weigh in on their day-to-day at Australian foodie favourite, Italian Street Kitchen - with plans for ‘ambitious expansion’ to ...

What to Expect During a Professional Termite Inspection

Keeping a home safe from termites isn't just about peace of mind—it’s a vital investment in the structure of your property. A professional termite inspection is your first line o...

Booty and the Beasts - The Podcast

Cult TV Show Back with Bite as a Riotous New Podcast  The show that scandalised, shocked and entertained audiences across the country, ‘Beauty and the Beast’, has returned in ...

A Guide to Determining the Right Time for a Switchboard Replacement

At the centre of every property’s electrical system is the switchboard – a component that doesn’t get much attention until problems arise. This essential unit directs electrici...

Après Skrew: Peanut Butter Whiskey Turns Australia’s Winter Parties Upside Down

This August, winter in Australia is about to get a lot nuttier. Skrewball Whiskey, the cult U.S. peanut butter whiskey that’s taken the world by storm, is bringing its bold brand o...

450 people queue for first taste of Pappa Flock’s crispy chicken as first restaurant opens in Queensland

Queenslanders turned out in flocks for the opening of Pappa Flock's first Queensland restaurant, with 450 people lining up to get their hands on the TikTok famous crispy crunchy ch...