Australians have grown used to petrol prices rising sharply during international crises before gradually falling back. But the current geopolitical environment raises a more difficult question: what if higher fuel prices become the new normal rather than a temporary shock?

Several major oil-producing regions are facing unprecedented uncertainty at the same time. Russia continues to face sanctions and restrictions on parts of its energy trade. Tensions involving Iran create ongoing risks to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important oil transit routes. Any disruption involving Saudi Arabia or the broader Persian Gulf would place further pressure on already strained global energy markets.

Australia imports the overwhelming majority of its refined fuels. While much of our petrol and diesel arrives from refineries in countries such as Singapore, South Korea and other parts of Asia, those refineries themselves depend on steady supplies of crude oil from around the world, including the Middle East.

If Asian refiners struggle to obtain enough crude oil, or if they must pay significantly more for it, those costs will inevitably flow through to Australian motorists and businesses. Australia's supply chain is therefore only as secure as the global oil market that feeds it.

The result could be sustained fuel prices well above the averages Australians have become accustomed to over the past decade.

Higher fuel costs rarely remain confined to the bowser.

Almost every product purchased in Australia spends time on a truck, train, ship or aircraft before reaching consumers. Freight companies, couriers, wholesalers and manufacturers all rely heavily on diesel and petrol. As transport costs rise, businesses eventually face a choice between absorbing those expenses or passing them on to customers.

Increasingly, businesses are introducing separate fuel levies on invoices to recover these additional operating costs. What was once viewed as an occasional surcharge during periods of exceptionally high fuel prices could become a standard feature of commercial invoices if elevated energy costs persist.

Consumers should also remember that GST applies to the total invoice amount, including many fuel surcharges. In practical terms, customers pay GST on the fuel levy itself, adding another layer to rising business costs.

For businesses operating on tight margins, particularly transport companies, builders, agricultural producers and retailers, fuel represents one of the largest variable expenses. Sustained increases can influence pricing decisions across almost every sector of the economy.

One possible consequence is an acceleration in electric vehicle adoption.

Many Australians have hesitated to purchase electric vehicles because of higher purchase prices or concerns about charging infrastructure. However, if petrol and diesel remain permanently expensive, the financial equation changes. Businesses operating delivery fleets, tradespeople covering large distances and households with significant commuting costs may find electric vehicles increasingly attractive purely on economic grounds.

While electric vehicles are not suitable for every driver, prolonged high fuel prices could encourage faster-than-expected growth in EV sales.

Higher transport costs also contribute to inflation more broadly. Food, construction materials, household goods, online shopping deliveries and many professional services all become more expensive when logistics costs increase. Economists often describe this as cost-push inflation—where rising input costs ripple through the economy.

Unlike shortages of individual products, fuel affects virtually every industry. It becomes part of the cost structure of almost everything Australians buy.

The Times View

Australia cannot control global conflicts or international oil markets, but it can recognise the economic reality they create. If disruptions to major oil-producing regions persist, Australians may need to prepare for an extended period of structurally higher fuel prices rather than another temporary spike.

Businesses that improve fuel efficiency, diversify transport options and invest in energy resilience are likely to be better positioned than those assuming cheaper fuel will soon return. The challenge for Australia is no longer simply securing fuel supplies—it is adapting an economy that has long depended on affordable transport energy.