Mon Dec 19

Labor just ahead in two Queensland polls and retains large federal poll lead

Written by: Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

The Poll Bludger ^[1] reported on two Queensland polls on December 12. A YouGov poll for The Courier Mail, conducted December 1-8 from a sample of 1,000, had a 50-50 tie, unchanged since June. Primary votes were 38% LNP (steady), 34% Labor (steady), 13% Greens (down one), 11% One Nation (up one) and 4% for all Others (steady).

Labor Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk had a 41% disapproval rating (up two) and a 40% approval (down five), for a net approval of -1, down seven points. LNP leader David Crisafilli had a 31-27 approval rating (31-23 in June). Palaszczuk’s lead as preferred premier slipped to 39-28 from 41-28 in June.

Analyst Kevin Bonham ^[2] strongly criticised The Courier Mail for the anti-Labor slant they put on this poll.

The first Resolve Queensland state poll ^[3], conducted from August to December from a sample of 924 for The Brisbane Times, gave Labor 37% of the primary vote, the LNP 35%, the Greens 11%, One Nation 6%, independents 7% and others 4%.

Resolve does not give two party estimates until close to elections, but Bonham estimated this poll would be 53-47 to Labor. This Queensland poll was presumably conducted with the five federal Resolve polls from August to December.

Asked whether they held positive, neutral or negative views of the leaders or were unfamiliar with them, Palaszczuk had a 39-31 positive rating and Crisafulli a 23-15 positive rating. Palaszczuk led as preferred premier by 42-30.

The next Queensland election is not until October 2024 ^[4]. Currently Labor appears to be just ahead, and Bonham thinks Labor would be likely to hold onto enough seats to form government with a 50-50 two party tie.

By the 2024 election, Labor will have held power since the January 2015 election, so there’s time for the polling to worsen for Labor. But Victorian Labor just retained government after eight years in power with 56 of the 88 lower house seats, up one since the 2018 election.

NSW Resolve poll on cashless gaming card

The New South Wales state election is in March 2023. We have been getting NSW voting intentions after every second federal Resolve poll. The last voting intentions was in early November ^[6], and there’s only been one federal Resolve poll since. I don’t expect NSW voting intentions until after the next federal Resolve poll.

A NSW Resolve poll ^[7] for The Sydney Morning Herald, presumably conducted with just the federal December Resolve poll, had voters supporting a mandatory cashless gaming card by 62-16. However, the question wording included arguments in favour of the cashless gaming card, but none against.

If the cashless gaming card were to go ahead, 32% wanted it introduced immediately for all gamblers, 24% to have a voluntary trial of the card statewide and 19% a mandatory trial in specific areas.

By 47-28, voters thought pubs and clubs have been poor instead of good on problem gambling. By 30-26, voters trusted Labor and Chris Minns over the Liberals and Dominic Perrottet to get the right outcome on gambling reforms.

Federal polls: Essential and Morgan

In last week’s federal Essential poll ^[8], Labor led by 51-44 on Essential’s two party measure that includes undecided (51-43 in late November ^[9]). Primary votes were 35% Labor (up two), 30% Coalition (down one), 13% Greens (steady), 17% for all Others (steady) and 5% undecided (down one). Respondent allocated preferences were friendly for the Coalition.

In other findings from this poll ^[10] of 1,042 respondents conducted in the days before December 13, Anthony Albanese’s ratings were unchanged since November at 60-27 approval (net +33). An Indigenous Voice to parliament was supported by a 63-37 margin (65-35 in August).

Probably due to the change in federal government, 2022 was considered a good year for trade unions over a bad year by a net +13, up from -13 in 2021. Small business was up from -45 to -25 in 2022, after the end of COVID lockdowns. The Australian economy had a net -27 rating in 2022, down one point on 2021.

Thinking about 2023, 40% thought it would be better for Australia than 2022, 25% no difference and 24% worse. On economic indicators, 78-80% expected the cost of living, energy prices and interest rates to be up in the year ahead, while 43% expected unemployment to be up, 30% about the same and 18% down.

A Morgan federal poll ^[11], conducted December 5-11, gave Labor a 56.5-53.5 lead, a two-point gain for Labor since the previous week. Morgan’s polls have been better for the Coalition than others since the May election. This is Labor’s highest two party vote in Morgan polls since the election.

US Senator Kyrsten Sinema switches from Democrat to independent

Shortly after United States Democrats won the December 6 Georgia Senate runoff ^[12] election to seal a 51-49 federal Senate majority, Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema defected from the Democrats ^[13] to become an independent.

I have not seen any polls of Arizona conducted since Sinema defected, but Slate reported ^[14] on a September poll that showed Sinema was unpopular with all Arizona demographics sampled. Sinema was at net -17 overall, net -20 with Democrats and net -18 with Republicans. She performed better with independent voters, but was still at net -10 with them.

Sinema is up for re-election in November 2024. Democrats are likely to run their own candidate against Sinema and a Republican. I do not know which side she will take most votes from, but it’s very unlikely Sinema will win given her unpopularity across the board.

Republicans’ worse than expected performance at the US midterm elections has resulted in some polls of the Republican presidential nomination ^[15] in 2024 showing Florida Governor Ron DeSantis now leading former president Donald Trump, although Trump still leads in others.