Liberal candidate Raissa Butkowski has drawn top position on the ballot paper for the May 9 Farrer byelection, in a field of a dozen candidates.

While she will be at the top of the ballot paper Butkowski, a lawyer with a community legal service and an Albury councillor, has a massive struggle in the contest. The byelection is to replace as member former Liberal leader Sussan Ley, who quit parliament after being ousted from the leadership.

The frontrunners are Independent Michelle Milthorpe, who has an education background and won 20% of the vote at the last election, and One Nation’s David Farley, an agribusinessman. Milthorpe has drawn second on the ballot paper, while Farley is at eighth spot.

Preferences are expected to be crucial to the outcome.

A defeat for the Liberals would be a setback for Opposition Leader Angus Taylor.

The Nationals’ Brad Robertson, who has a military background, has drawn fourth place, while the Greens’ Richard Hendrie, a mental health and disability advocate, is at sixth place on the ballot.

Also contesting are candidates from the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party, Family First, Gerard Rennick People First, Legalise Cannabis, Affordable Housing Now – Sustainable Australia Party, and two other independents.

The Nationals are homing in strongly on the deep local concerns about health and hospital services in Albury, running a health forum with frontbenchers this week.

Nationals leader Matt Canavan said it was obvious the local hospital upgrades “are more about budget, rather than community needs”.

“It is clear we need adequate services and we need to invest in the community of Farrer,” he said.