Thu Nov 17

Nine days from Victorian election, a new poll gives Labor a modest lead; US Republicans win House

Written by Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

The Victorian election will be held in nine days, on November 26. A Redbridge poll for The Herald Sun, conducted October 31 to November 6 from a sample of 1,189, gave Labor a 53.5-46.5 lead. Primary votes had an initial 10.4% undecided.

The Poll Bludger ^[1] calculated primary votes using who the undecided were “leaning towards”, resulting in 36.7% Labor, 35.5% Coalition, 13.2% Greens, 8.5% independents and 6.0% others.

This poll was not released until November 14, and was reported on Twitter by Redbridge director Kos Samaras ^[2].

By 73-15, voters thought the health system was in crisis and Matthew Guy and the Coalition were best to fix the health crisis by 55-24 over Daniel Andrews and Labor. This question is right-skewed; it would be better to ask which party is best for the health system without the first question on a health crisis.

By 65-19, voters agreed with the Coalition’s policy to delay the construction of stage one of the Suburban Rail Loop and divert all funds saved to hospitals and the health system.

This poll was conducted in the first week of November and was already a week past its last fieldwork date when released. The Labor lead is similar to the 54-46 Labor lead in the Victorian Newspoll conducted about the same time, and worse for Labor than in two polls released last week ^[3].

Group voting tickets for upper house released

Owing to Victorian Labor’s failure to even attempt to reform the upper house in their eight years in government, everyone who votes above the line in the upper house will have their preferences decided by their party’s group voting ticket (GVT). All GVTs were released Sunday.

The only way to avoid GVTs is to vote below the line: only five numbers below the line are required for a formal vote, though you can continue numbering beyond five.

The Poll Bludger ^[6] has a detailed analysis of the GVTs. There is a clear ideological split, with left-wing parties assisting other left-wing parties, while right-wing to far-right parties assist the right. In the middle, there are some micro parties who swap preferences with each other and put the biggest parties last (the Glenn Druery approach).

The ideological split in parties’ GVTs makes it more likely that the upper house result will roughly reflect a left-right split within each five-member electorate, although parties that do not deserve to win could still win on GVTs.

In the Redbridge poll above, Labor’s primary vote was 6.2% below what it received in the lower house at the 2018 election. If that swing were replicated in the upper house on Election Day, Labor would likely lose more seats than they would had GVTs been scrapped.

Federal Essential poll: Albanese’s ratings improve

In this week’s federal Essential ^[7] poll, conducted in the days before November 15 from a sample of 1,035, 60% approved of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s performance (up two since October) and 27% disapproved (up one), for a net approval of +33, up one point.

By 46-34, respondents thought Australia was heading in the right direction, but were more pessimistic about other countries. The United Kingdom was at 40-33 wrong track, the United States at 49-28 wrong, China at 66-13 wrong and Russia at 79-10 wrong.

Essential’s question on proposed industrial relations laws is left-skewed because it gives arguments in favour of the reforms: “Key aims of this legislation include reducing the gender pay gap, encouraging flexible working arrangements and allowing workers from different companies to collectively negotiate pay rises.” However, there is no argument against the reforms.

By 50-36, respondents thought the outcomes of the COP27 climate conference can make a meaningful difference on climate change. Note “can” not “will”.

By 70-21, respondents thought the government should do more to ensure multinational companies pay their fair share of tax, over the alternative that multinational companes will always find loopholes in the tax system.

On Twitter usage, 62% said they had never used Twitter, 16% several times a month or less, 13% several times a week and 9% every day. On politicians using Twitter, 43% thought it inappropriate for them to use Twitter at all, 41% that they should use Twitter but also other media, and 16% that Twitter is a vital channel.

Federal Morgan poll: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

This week’s Morgan federal poll ^[8] gave Labor a 53.5-46.5 lead, unchanged from the previous week but a two-point gain for the Coalition since last fortnight. Polling was conducted November 7-13.

US Republicans win House as Trump announces 2024 campaign

CNN has projected Republicans ^[9] will win 218 of the 435 US House of Representatives seats at the November 8 midterm elections, enough for a majority. Democrats have won 210 and seven seats are still undecided. If undecided contests go to current leaders, Republicans will win the House by 222-213, an exact reversal of Democrats’ 222-213 win at the 2020 elections ^[10].

Republicans currently lead the national House popular vote by 51.2-47.3 according to the Cook Political Report ^[11] (a 3.9% margin), while Democrats won it by 50.8-47.7 (a 3.1% margin) in 2020. The current popular vote swing is 7.0% to Republicans, but much of that swing was wasted on seats that were safe for either party, leading to limited seat gains.

Former president Donald Trump announced his 2024 presidential campaign on Tuesday (Wednesday AEDT). Trump has been blamed for Republicans’ underwhelming performance at these midterms. Party nominating contests for president will begin in early 2024, with the general election in November 2024.

While Democrats have already held the Senate, there is one more contest left: the Georgia Senate runoff ^[13] on December 6. Democrats will hope that Trump’s announcement will galvanise their voters.