The Times Australia
The Times World News

.

Morocco are the first-ever African semifinalists of the World Cup. Here’s what geographical data tell us about this result

  • Written by Stephen Woodcock, Associate Professor of Mathematical Sciences, University of Technology Sydney

The 2022 FIFA World Cup[1] has certainly attracted plenty of negative press, with scandal from bidding process[2] through to the tournament itself[3]. Yet out of this negativity, one positive storyline has arisen.

With victories over two recent European champions – Spain and Portugal – Morocco have become the first African nation[4] to reach the last four of the World Cup.

Read more: FIFA's mirage of unity: why the World Cup is a vessel for political protest[5]

Mapping a path to the final

Could the location of the tournament itself partially explain the Moroccans’ surprise progress? When an Asian side – South Korea in 2002[6] - similarly broke the duopoly of Europe and the Americas, it was on home soil.

An African squad would have made it to the semifinals 12 years ago in the first World Cup to be hosted on that continent, if not for one of the most infamously unsporting acts[7] in the game’s history, at the hands (literally) of Uruguay’s Luis Suarez[8].

Now the World Cup is played in the Arab world for the first time and, perhaps not coincidentally, we are seeing a nation from the region reach unprecedented heights.

Geography could matter more than we think

In 21 previous tournaments, only three teams have lifted the trophy without being either hosts or a prior champion. One of those – West Germany in 1954 – did so in a neighbouring country[9].

Before 2010, no European nation had won the tournament outside Europe and only one non-European nation had won on the continent[10].

This trend is also seen in continental competitions. The European Championships’ two biggest shocks were Denmark’s 1992 success after initially failing to qualify[11], and the 2004 championship of rank outsiders Greece[12]. The Danes’ victory came in another Scandinavian nation, and the Greek success was in another Mediterranean country.

Of course, none of this is directly causal. The Moroccans have certainly not reached this lofty stage because the tournament is in a fellow Arab country. As a low-scoring, complex team game, football is one of the hardest sports to predict[13] and every little advantage, even as small as being in a comparable climate, could tip the balance of a game one way or another.

Parallels with other nations

When looking at historical data, the clearest predictor of which sides may be primed to perform better than ever before is their latitude relative to the tournament host. For example, Paraguay’s best run was in South Africa in 2010, at similar latitude, rather than in geographically closer South American nations further south.

Of the 39 nations to reach the tournament at least six times, 23 of those have never bettered their performance at the tournament closest to their home latitude. Almost three-quarters of sides’ best tournaments involved travel less than 10 degrees either north or south.

With Doha less than nine degrees north of the Moroccan capital Rabat, only three other competing nations lie closer to the latitude of Qatar. Two of those have enjoyed historic wins during the earlier group stage of the tournament: Tunisia defeated the reigning champions[14], and Saudi Arabia took down one of this year’s finalists[15].

The “world” game?

Even with its huge global appeal, football has been historically slanted towards Europe and the Americas, which may have stifled progress of the game in other regions.

Despite its numerous ongoing flaws, the administration has come a long way since the absurd situation in 1958 when the one place designated for a team from the Asian and African regions was taken by Wales[16].

Read more: Morocco at the World Cup: 6 driving forces behind a history-making win[17]

Morocco’s fairytale run should certainly be seen as a huge positive for the game in North Africa, in particular. There do remain numerous “blind spots” in where tournaments have been held.

Rio de Janeiro, where the 1950 and 2010 finals were held, lies within one degree of the Tropic of Capricorn. Amazingly, if you travel north from there, you will only find one World Cup final venue (Mexico City) south of Doha.

Around 40% of the world’s population[18] live between the tropics. This proportion is only increasing, but the game remains dominated by nations outside this region.

It could be argued that the countries most impacted by this geographic bias are African. Nations such as Cameroon and Nigeria have frequently qualified for the World Cup in recent decades, but have never played in a tournament within a 20-degree latitude from home. This would never be the case for a European side.

There was set to be a tournament in a more equatorial region in 1986. When Colombia backed out of hosting[19] less than a year prior, few would have believed that four decades later, the game would still not have revisited this part of the globe.

A sporting chance

Criticisms of the process and politics underlying the 2022 World Cup cannot be overlooked, but the decision to broaden the geographic footprint of host nations can at least be seen as a positive step towards a more reasonable distribution of sporting advantage.

No on-field results will (nor should) lessen the valid criticisms surrounding this tournament, but it would be a shame for the historic achievement for African football to be overlooked.

We can’t definitively know how much of a role geographic proximity played in the Moroccan story, but the case for breaking European and American hegemony over the game is surely established beyond doubt.

Read more: World Cup 2022: crunching 150 years of big data to predict the winner[20]

References

  1. ^ 2022 FIFA World Cup (en.wikipedia.org)
  2. ^ bidding process (www.nytimes.com)
  3. ^ tournament itself (www.bbc.com)
  4. ^ Morocco have become the first African nation (www.football365.com)
  5. ^ FIFA's mirage of unity: why the World Cup is a vessel for political protest (theconversation.com)
  6. ^ South Korea in 2002 (www.aljazeera.com)
  7. ^ one of the most infamously unsporting acts (www.sportingnews.com)
  8. ^ hands (literally) of Uruguay’s Luis Suarez (www.foxsports.com)
  9. ^ did so in a neighbouring country (www.dw.com)
  10. ^ won on the continent (historyofsoccer.info)
  11. ^ Denmark’s 1992 success after initially failing to qualify (sport.optus.com.au)
  12. ^ rank outsiders Greece (www.planetsport.com)
  13. ^ hardest sports to predict (www.zmescience.com)
  14. ^ Tunisia defeated the reigning champions (www.france24.com)
  15. ^ Saudi Arabia took down one of this year’s finalists (7news.com.au)
  16. ^ taken by Wales (magazine.faw.cymru)
  17. ^ Morocco at the World Cup: 6 driving forces behind a history-making win (theconversation.com)
  18. ^ Around 40% of the world’s population (www.jcu.edu.au)
  19. ^ Colombia backed out of hosting (scorum.com)
  20. ^ World Cup 2022: crunching 150 years of big data to predict the winner (theconversation.com)

Read more https://theconversation.com/morocco-are-the-first-ever-african-semifinalists-of-the-world-cup-heres-what-geographical-data-tell-us-about-this-result-196484

Times Magazine

DIY Is In: How Aussie Parents Are Redefining Birthday Parties

When planning his daughter’s birthday, Rich opted for a DIY approach, inspired by her love for drawing maps and giving clues. Their weekend tradition of hiding treats at home sparked the idea, and with a pirate ship playground already chosen as t...

When Touchscreens Turn Temperamental: What to Do Before You Panic

When your touchscreen starts acting up, ignoring taps, registering phantom touches, or freezing entirely, it can feel like your entire setup is falling apart. Before you rush to replace the device, it’s worth taking a deep breath and exploring what c...

Why Social Media Marketing Matters for Businesses in Australia

Today social media is a big part of daily life. All over Australia people use Facebook, Instagram, TikTok , LinkedIn and Twitter to stay connected, share updates and find new ideas. For businesses this means a great chance to reach new customers and...

Building an AI-First Culture in Your Company

AI isn't just something to think about anymore - it's becoming part of how we live and work, whether we like it or not. At the office, it definitely helps us move faster. But here's the thing: just using tools like ChatGPT or plugging AI into your wo...

Data Management Isn't Just About Tech—Here’s Why It’s a Human Problem Too

Photo by Kevin Kuby Manuel O. Diaz Jr.We live in a world drowning in data. Every click, swipe, medical scan, and financial transaction generates information, so much that managing it all has become one of the biggest challenges of our digital age. Bu...

Headless CMS in Digital Twins and 3D Product Experiences

Image by freepik As the metaverse becomes more advanced and accessible, it's clear that multiple sectors will use digital twins and 3D product experiences to visualize, connect, and streamline efforts better. A digital twin is a virtual replica of ...

The Times Features

How to Choose a Cosmetic Clinic That Aligns With Your Aesthetic Goals

Clinics that align with your goals prioritise subtlety, safety, and client input Strong results come from experience, not trends or treatment bundles A proper consultation fe...

7 Non-Invasive Options That Can Subtly Enhance Your Features

Non-invasive treatments can refresh your appearance with minimal downtime Options range from anti-wrinkle treatments to advanced skin therapies Many results appear gradually ...

What is creatine? What does the science say about its claims to build muscle and boost brain health?

If you’ve walked down the wellness aisle at your local supermarket recently, or scrolled the latest wellness trends on social media, you’ve likely heard about creatine. Creati...

Whole House Water Filters: Essential or Optional for Australian Homes?

Access to clean, safe water is something most Australians take for granted—but the reality can be more complex. Our country’s unique climate, frequent droughts, and occasional ...

How Businesses Turn Data into Actionable Insights

In today's digital landscape, businesses are drowning in data yet thirsting for meaningful direction. The challenge isn't collecting information—it's knowing how to turn data i...

Why Mobile Allied Therapy Services Are Essential in Post-Hospital Recovery

Mobile allied health services matter more than ever under recent NDIA travel funding cuts. A quiet but critical shift is unfolding in Australia’s healthcare landscape. Mobile all...