Mon Mar 2

Labor down in Newspoll and Redbridge polls, with One Nation still in a clear second position

Written by Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

New federal polls from Newspoll and Redbridge have Labor’s primary vote dropping, with One Nation seven or nine points ahead of the Coalition in second place.

Labor maintains a clear two-party advantage over either One Nation or the Coalition. However, the total vote for the Coalition and One Nation combined increased two points to 47% in both these polls.

There are also two South Australian state polls for the March 21 election. Labor is still dominant in SA.

A national Newspoll ^[1], conducted February 23–26 from a sample of 1,237, gave Labor 32% of the primary vote (down one since the previous Newspoll three weeks ago ^[2]), One Nation 27% (steady), the Coalition 20% (up two), the Greens 11% (down one) and all Others 10% (steady).

With the Coalition still seven points behind One Nation, no two-party estimate was given. Applying 2025 election preference flows would give Labor about a 54–46 lead over the Coalition, a two-point gain for the Coalition.

Anthony Albanese’s net approval slumped five points to -15, with 55% dissatisfied and 40% satisfied. Angus Taylor’s initial net approval was -3 (38% dissatisfied, 35% satisfied), a huge improvement on Sussan Ley’s -39 in her final Newspoll as Liberal leader. Albanese led Taylor as better PM by 45–37 (49–30 vs Ley).

Albanese’s net approval in this Newspoll is his worst since he scored -21 in mid-February 2025. But at the May 2025 election, Labor won a landslide. Here is the graph of Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll with a smoothed line.

Albanese Newspoll ratings.

Redbridge poll

A national Redbridge and Accent Research poll ^[3] for The Australian Financial Review, conducted February 23–27 from a sample of 1,006, gave Labor 32% of the primary vote (down two since the previous Redbridge poll in late January), One Nation 28% (up two), the Coalition 19% (steady), the Greens 12% (up one) and all Others 9% (down one).

By respondent preferences, Labor led One Nation by 54–46 and the Coalition by 53–47, with Labor’s lead against the Coalition increasing to 54–46 by 2025 election flows, a two-point gain for the Coalition.

Albanese’s net favourability fell three points to -13, Taylor’s improved three points to -1 and Pauline Hanson’s was up one to -2. In a three-way preferred PM question, Albanese had 34% (down three), Hanson 23% (not previously asked) and Taylor 10% (up one vs Ley).

SA DemosAU poll has Labor landslide

It’s less than three weeks until the March 21 South Australian state election. The Poll Bludger reported ^[4] that a DemosAU poll, conducted January 31 to February 16 from a sample of 1,070, gave Labor 43% of the primary vote (down four since the DemosAU October poll ^[5]), One Nation 19% (not previously asked), the Liberals 18% (down three), the Greens 12% (down one) and all Others 8% (down 11).

While this poll was recently released, it was taken before the SA Newspoll and YouGov polls ^[6] that I reported on February 20.

Eleven of the 22 upper house seats will be up for election by statewide proportional representation with preferences. A quota for election is one-twelfth of the vote or 8.3%. Upper house members have eight-year terms, so changes in representation are compared with the 2018 election.

A man stands at a podium and makes a victory fist in front of a crowd.

SA Premier Peter Malinauskas is well ahead as preferred premier. Matt Turner/AAP ^[7]

In this poll, Labor had 38% of the upper house vote (up one since October), One Nation 21% (up nine), the Liberals 15% (down two), the Greens 11% (steady) and Family First 4% (up one). If these votes occur at the election, Labor would win four seats on raw quotas, One Nation two, the Liberals one and the Greens one. The three remaining seats would probably go to the Liberals, Labor and One Nation.

At the 2022 SA election ^[8], Labor won five of the 11 upper house seats up, the Liberals four, the Greens one and One Nation one. This poll suggests a total upper house ignoring defections of ten Labor out of 22 (up one since 2018 ^[9]), six Liberals (down two), four One Nation (up three) and two Greens (steady).

SA Morgan poll has One Nation at 28%

A SA SMS Morgan poll ^[10], conducted February 19–23 from a sample of 2,172, gave Labor 35% of the primary vote, One Nation 28%, the Liberals 16.5%, the Greens 11%, independents 6.5% and others 3%. In two-party matchups, Labor led One Nation by 59–41 and the Liberals by 61–39.

This poll has One Nation four points higher than in any other recent SA poll, with One Nation’s next highest 24% in Newspoll. In my discussion of a Victorian SMS Morgan poll ^[11] that had One Nation first on primaries, I said SMS polls may be prone to having too many motivated respondents.

Labor Premier Peter Malinauskas had a 61–37 approval. Liberal leader Ashton Hurn was at 52–42 approval. Malinauskas led Hurn as better premier by 61–30.5

Tasmanian federal and state redistribution

A draft redistribution has proposed extensive changes to three of Tasmania’s five federal seats, which are also used at state elections. However, The Poll Bludger ^[12] said the Labor vs Liberal two-party margins in all five seats were little changed.

UK: Greens gain very safe Labour seat at byelection

At the 2024 United Kingdom general election, Labour won over 50% in Gorton and Denton with no other party above 14%. At last Thursday’s byelection for this seat, Labour’s vote was halved, with the Greens winning nearly 41%, 12 points ahead of the far-right Reform, with Labour a further 3.3 points back in third. I covered this for The Poll Bludger ^[13].