Booked to travel through the Middle East? Here’s why you shouldn’t cancel your flight
- Written by Natasha Heap, Lecturer in Aviation, University of Southern Queensland
Travellers are being advised not to cancel their tickets for flights through the Middle East and check with their airlines, as airspace remains closed indefinitely.
If travellers cancel a ticket, they may lose some of their consumer rights[1] and ability to claim refunds.
The US and Israeli bombing of Iran[2] and the closure of airspace and airports is affecting all global airlines that fly through the region. The closures will have a flow-on effect, leading to significant disruption to the global airline industry that may take weeks to clear.
Tens of thousands of travellers affected
The Middle East is home to three of the world’s largest airlines: Emirates and Etihad, both in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Qatar Airways, based in Qatar.
Over the past 20 years, the region has become the global hub of international aviation. It is not only the three airlines that call the region home that are affected by the current conflict.
Emirates has issued a notice to all passengers[3] advising it has suspended all operations to and from Dubai until 3pm UAE time on March 2.
Passengers booked to travel on or before March 5 have two options: rebook on an alternative flight or request a refund. Etihad has issued similar advice[4]. Qatar is referring travellers[5] to its app.
Other carriers that fly through the region, such as Lufthansa[6] have also issued notices to their passengers.
Virgin Australia and Qantas[7]’ operations are not directly affected by the airspace closure. However, some passengers may be affected if travelling on partner airlines. It is essential for people due to travel to check with their airline.
Travel insurance for cancellations is unlikely to be helpful, because acts of war that disrupt travel are explicitly excluded[8] from coverage.
It could take weeks to clear the backlog of travellers just from the past weekend. US President Donald Trump has said the operations could last for “4 weeks or less[9]”.
Tens of thousands of travellers are stranded in the Middle East waiting for the airspace to reopen so they can continue their journey.
The General Civil Aviation Authority in the UAE announced the UAE government will bear the cost[10] of accommodating all stranded passengers in their country. There are around 20,000 people[11] stranded in the UAE, and many more in other countries across the region.
Plans in place to keep passengers safe
Airlines have been watching the rising tensions in the region very closely. They’re used to dealing with unexpected operational disruptions.
With the major shutdown of Middle Eastern airspace in June 2025[12] still fresh in people’s minds, the airlines were quick to factor that experience into their decisions this time around.
The current situation is a little different to June 2025. Following US and Israeli bombing of targets in Iran at the weekend, Iran responded with missiles and drones that hit both civilian and military targets in several countries across the region.
Dubai International Airport[13] and Abu Dhabi’s Zayed International Airport[14] were both hit by drone attacks or debris. Both of these airports are for civil use. They are not military assets.
This is not the first time airports in the region have come under attack. In January 2022, Houthi forces in Yemen launched a drone attack[15] on Abu Dhabi’s airport. Three people were killed.
The airline hubs have few alternatives
Some airlines affected by the airspace closure will be able to adjust their schedules and routes to avoid the area to try and lessen the impact both to their passengers and their business profitability.
However, the carriers that call the Middle East home have built their networks[16] and highly profitable[17] businesses using the hub and spoke[18] model. They bring passengers into the hub, which is a transfer point to then fly them onward to their destinations. With the airspace closed, these airlines cannot bring passengers in or fly them out.
It would be nearly impossible for the main carriers in the Middle East to temporarily move their base of operations to another country.
They are large organisations. Emirates currently has a fleet of 261 passenger aircraft[19] in service. Simply finding a place to park all the aeroplanes would be a significant challenge.
Complex systems within systems
Running an airline is like putting together a complex jigsaw puzzle with constantly moving pieces[20].
Beyond the aircraft, airlines need large teams of pilots and cabin crew, as well as extensive catering, cleaning, refuelling and maintenance operations. These systems are highly integrated and location-specific. This makes it extremely difficult to relocate or replicate them in another country at short notice.
Currently, the Middle Eastern carriers have large numbers of aircraft, crew and passengers stranded at the far reaches of their networks. For all airlines, the safety and security of their passengers and crew is their priority.
When the airspace reopens, airlines will face significant challenges to work through the backlog of stranded passengers. Extra flights and adjustments to schedules will likely be needed.
It remains unclear how long the airspace will be closed. But the airlines will already be working on plans to restore full operations quickly and safely when the time comes.
Will this latest airspace closure reduce demand for travel through the Middle East? It may in the short term. However, people will continue to travel. The Middle Eastern airline hubs are geographically located for global connectivity. The hope is the current military action and regional instability will be short-lived.
References
- ^ consumer rights (www.abc.net.au)
- ^ Iran (theconversation.com)
- ^ notice to all passengers (www.emirates.com)
- ^ similar advice (www.etihad.com)
- ^ referring travellers (www.qatarairways.com)
- ^ Lufthansa (www.lufthansa.com)
- ^ Qantas (www.qantas.com)
- ^ explicitly excluded (www.cnbc.com)
- ^ 4 weeks or less (www.cbsnews.com)
- ^ bear the cost (www.gulfnews.com)
- ^ around 20,000 people (www.thenationalnews.com)
- ^ airspace in June 2025 (theconversation.com)
- ^ Dubai International Airport (www.news.com.au)
- ^ Zayed International Airport (www.khaleejtimes.com)
- ^ drone attack (www.aljazeera.com)
- ^ networks (www.etihad.com)
- ^ highly profitable (www.emirates.com)
- ^ hub and spoke (iata-codes.com)
- ^ 261 passenger aircraft (www.emirates.com)
- ^ constantly moving pieces (www.tandfonline.com)
