One Nation surges above Coalition in Newspoll as Labor still well ahead, in contrast with other polls
- Written by: Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
The aftermath of the Bondi terror attacks has brought about a shift in polling for the Albanese government, which has been riding high since its thumping win in the 2025 federal election.
In the latest polls, Labor leads in Newspoll by 55–45 but only by 52–48 in Resolve. In Newspoll, Labor has 32% of the primary vote, One Nation 22% and the Coalition just 21%, but Resolve has the Coalition ten points ahead of One Nation.
A national Newspoll[1], conducted January 12–15 from a sample of 1,224, gave Labor a 55–45 lead over the Coalition, a three-point gain for the Coalition since the November Newspoll[2].
Primary votes were 32% Labor (down four), 22% One Nation (up seven), 21% Coalition (down three), 12% Greens (down one) and 13% for all Others (up one).
This is a record low for the Coalition in any poll and the first time they have been third in a poll. An early January DemosAU poll[3] had One Nation and the Coalition tied at 23% each, so it’s not a record high for One Nation.
Anthony Albanese’s net approval slumped 11 points to -11, with 53% dissatisfied and 42% satisfied. This is Albanese’s worst net approval since last April. Sussan Ley’s net approval was up one point to -28. Albanese led Ley as better PM by 51–31 (54–27 in November).
The graph below shows Albanese’s Newspoll net approval with a trend line. His current net approval of -11 is much better than his nadir last February at -21.
Newspoll has been better for Labor this term than other polls. Three early January polls had Labor ahead by between 52–48 and 53–47, and the Resolve poll below, which was taken at the same time as Newspoll, gave Labor a 52–48 lead.
In the weeks since Bondi, there has been much negative media coverage regarding Albanese and Labor’s response to Bondi, and this probably explains the continued slide for Labor in Resolve since the post-Bondi Resolve poll in late December.
Bondi is a single incident that has had a negative impact on Labor and Albanese. As time passes, voters may move past Bondi, allowing Labor to recover some of the lost ground. Despite Resolve being much worse for Labor than Newspoll, the Liberals only led Labor by 29–26 on cost of living, which was easily the most important issue before Bondi.
Regarding the Coalition One Nation gap, while Newspoll has One Nation one point ahead of the Coalition, other polls disagree. Other than the tie in DemosAU, the Coalition led One Nation on primary votes by four points in Fox & Hedgehog, ten points in Resolve and 15.5 points in Morgan.
It’s likely that the Coalition is still second on primary votes with One Nation third, and we don’t need to estimate a Labor vs One Nation two party vote yet. But if One Nation’s surge continues, this will change.
A national Resolve poll[4] for Nine newspapers, conducted January 12–16 from a sample of 1,800, gave Labor a 52–48 lead over the Coalition by respondent preferences, a two-point gain for the Coalition since a special late December post-Bondi Resolve poll[5].
Primary votes were 30% Labor (down two), 28% Coalition (steady), 18% One Nation (up two), 10% Greens (down two), 7% independents (down one) and 7% others (up three). By 2025 election preference flows, Labor would have led by about 51–49, a three-point gain for the Coalition. Since the early December Resolve poll, Labor’s primary vote has dropped five points and One Nation’s has increased four points.
Albanese’s net approval was down 13 points since late December to -22, and it has fallen 28 points since early December. Now 56% rated him poor and 34% good. Ley’s net approval dropped four points since late December to -8, and is down 11 points since early December.
Albanese led Ley by 33–29 as preferred PM, down from a 38–30 lead in late December and 41–26 in early December. Albanese’s response to Bondi was rated poor by 56–32, while Ley’s response was rated good by 53–29.
The Liberals took a 31–26 lead over Labor on economic management[6] after Labor had led by 36–33 in early December. On keeping the cost of living low, the Liberals led by 29–26 (a 31–31 tie in early December).
References
- ^ Newspoll (www.theaustralian.com.au)
- ^ November Newspoll (theconversation.com)
- ^ early January DemosAU poll (theconversation.com)
- ^ national Resolve poll (www.theage.com.au)
- ^ special late December post-Bondi Resolve poll (theconversation.com)
- ^ economic management (www.smh.com.au)
