Is Having Donald Trump as President Beneficial to Australia — and Why?

Donald Trump’s return to the White House has reignited debate across Australia about whether his leadership is ultimately a strategic advantage or a liability for the country. Australia–US relations have historically been strong regardless of who occupies the Oval Office, but Trump’s disruptive approach to global politics forces Canberra to re-evaluate both the risks and the opportunities his presidency creates.

This article breaks down the major dimensions: defence, trade, diplomacy, China, energy, and domestic economic impacts for Australia.

1. Defence and Security: The Biggest Source of Benefit

If there is one area where Australia could tangibly benefit from a Trump presidency, it’s defence.

AUKUS Momentum

Trump has historically been strongly pro-military and has expressed approval of Australia’s willingness to invest in its own defence. A return of Trump is likely to mean:

• Continued support for AUKUS nuclear-powered submarines

• Accelerated cooperation on hypersonics, drones, and AI-enabled warfare

• Fewer bureaucratic hurdles in US export controls

A US President who likes hard power means AUKUS is more likely to be fast-tracked than slowed down.

Pressure for Allies to Spend More

Trump’s tough rhetoric toward NATO allies often unnerves Europeans, but for Australia it may actually be beneficial. Canberra already meets or is close to meeting defence spending expectations. Trump’s push for allies to “pull their weight” aligns with a bipartisan view in Australia that defence needs sustained investment.

Clear US Deterrence Posture in the Indo-Pacific

Trump openly confronts China and supports a strong naval presence. For Australia, that means:

• A stronger US deterrence umbrella

• More frequent joint exercises

• Greater military presence in the region

In raw security terms, Trump provides clarity — even if it’s blunt.

2. China Policy: Alignment Helps Australia, Escalation Could Hurt It

This is the most complex area.

Where Trump Helps Australia

• He is unambiguously tough on China’s geopolitical behaviour.

• His stance strengthens the US–Australia partnership in containing aggressive behaviour in the South China Sea.

• His public support for Taiwan indirectly strengthens Australia's regional deterrence posture.

When Australia stands beside a US that is firm on China, Beijing tends to tread more carefully.

Where Trump Could Hurt Australia

Australia’s economy is still deeply tied to Chinese demand. Under Trump:

• A renewed trade war is likely

• China may retaliate economically against US allies

• Supply chain disruptions could escalate

• Global markets could face turbulence that hits Australian exporters

Australia benefits from US strength, but not from US–China chaos. The challenge is balancing deterrence with economic stability.

3. Trade and Economic Impacts: Mixed at Best

Trump’s economic instincts are protectionist and nationalist — “America First.”

Potential negatives for Australia

• Higher US tariffs could distort global supply chains

• US subsidies to domestic industries could disadvantage Australian producers

• Trump has shown little interest in multilateral trade frameworks like the CPTPP

• Global markets may become more volatile

Australia’s economy thrives on stability, rules, and open trade. Trump disrupts all three — often intentionally.

Potential positives

• Trump’s firm stance on China may indirectly push US firms and investors toward “trusted partner” markets like Australia

• Australian critical minerals could become more strategically important to the US

• More American capital may flow into defence, cybersecurity, and resources sectors in Australia

Still, the benefits are sector-specific, while the risks are economy-wide.

4. Energy and Resources: A Mixed Blessing

Trump is pro-fossil fuels, anti-regulation, and skeptical of global climate agreements.

Possible upside for Australia

• Increased demand for Australian LNG and coal from countries adjusting to US policy shifts

• Stronger cooperation on critical minerals used in defence and EV manufacturing

Possible downside

• Climate cooperation between the US and allies could slow

• Pressure on Australia to relax environmental or emissions policies

• Europe and Asian partners may distance themselves from nations aligned with the US if climate action stalls

Trump’s energy policy benefits exporters, but may complicate Australia’s global climate positioning.

5. Diplomatic Style: Stability vs Disruption

Trump is unpredictable and often transactional. This creates both opportunities and dangers.

Advantages for Australia

• The Australia–US relationship tends to remain stable regardless of the leader

• Trump has historically spoken positively about Australia as a “strong and reliable ally”

• His deal-making mentality can unlock agreements quickly when both sides are aligned

Disadvantages

• Allies can be blindsided if Trump changes positions suddenly

• Multilateral institutions (UN, WTO, WHO) may weaken under Trump, reducing platforms Australia relies on

• US foreign policy can shift erratically, affecting Australia’s regional strategy

Diplomacy thrives on predictability — Trump offers the opposite.

6. Domestic Australian Politics: Polarisation Increases

Trump’s presidency often influences domestic political dynamics in allied countries. In Australia:

• Conservative parties may feel emboldened to adopt tougher immigration or national-security rhetoric

• Progressive groups tend to mobilise harder against Trump-aligned policies

• Media polarisation increases

This dynamic can distract from bipartisan cooperation on defence, trade diversification, and structural economic reform.

Conclusion: Beneficial in Security, Risky in Economics, Disruptive in Diplomacy

So — is having Donald Trump as President beneficial to Australia?

Yes, in some important ways:

• Strong defence ties

• Clear Indo-Pacific strategy

• Accelerated AUKUS cooperation

• Greater US attention to China’s regional behaviour

But the risks are real:

• Economic instability

• Renewed China–US trade conflict

• Weaker global institutions Australia depends on

• Unpredictable diplomatic moves

• Increased political division domestically

Final verdict:

Trump can benefit Australia’s security environment, but his presidency simultaneously poses significant economic and diplomatic risks. Australia benefits most when it can harness Trump’s pro-alliance instincts without being caught in the slipstream of global instability his style often creates.

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