Wed Dec 6

Labor down but still has large lead in federal Resolve poll; it's close in Queensland

Written by: Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

A federal Resolve poll ^[1] for Nine newspapers, conducted November 29 to December 3 from a sample of 1,605, gave Labor 35% of the primary vote (steady since November), the Coalition 34% (up four), the Greens 12% (down one), One Nation 5% (down two), the UAP 1% (down one), independents 9% (steady) and others 3% (down one).

Resolve doesn’t give a two party estimate until near elections, but an estimate based on 2022 election preference flows gives Labor a 55–45 lead, a two-point gain for the Coalition since November.

In my November article on Resolve ^[2], I said the big Labor lead was not supported by other recent polls, and this still applies. Last week’s Newspoll ^[3] had a 50–50 tie with the Coalition seven points ahead of Labor on primary votes, while Resolve has Labor one point ahead on primaries.

On Anthony Albanese’s performance ^[4], 48% said it was poor and 37% good, for a net approval of -11, down five points. Peter Dutton’s net approval was down four points to -8. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by 42–28 (40–27 in November).

Immigration has been in the news recently, and the Liberals led Labor on the immigration and refugees issue by 33–22, out from 28–25 in November. On keeping the cost of living low, the Liberals led by 26–21, the same margin as in November (29–24). On economic management, the Liberals led by 35–27, virtually unchanged from November (34–27).

By 43–18, voters supported the government limiting spending growth on the NDIS ^[5] to 8% a year (37–17 in May). On how to limit spending, 38% thought restrictions should be placed on who is given support, 26% didn’t want any spending restrictions and 18% wanted a cap on the amount of money paid to each participant.

Morgan poll and upcoming Dunkley byelection

A federal Morgan poll ^[6], conducted November 27 to December 3 from a sample of 1,730, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition since last week. Primary votes were 37.5% Coalition (up 2.5), 32.5% Labor (up 0.5), 12.5% Greens (down one), 5% One Nation (steady), 8.5% independents (down 0.5) and 4% others (down 1.5).

Labor’s federal MP for the Victorian seat of Dunkley, Peta Murphy, died from breast cancer ^[7] on Monday. In 2022 ^[8], Murphy defeated the Liberals by 56.3–43.7. A byelection will be needed in Dunkley in the new year.

It’s close in a Queensland Resolve poll

The Queensland state election will be held in October 2024. A Resolve poll ^[9] for The Brisbane Times, conducted over four months from September to December from a sample of 940, gave the Liberal National Party 37% of the primary vote (down one since May to August), Labor 33% (up one), the Greens 12% (up one), One Nation 8% (steady), independents 7% (down one) and others 3% (steady).

The Poll Bludger ^[10] says the primary votes suggest a “fairly even split on two-party preferred”. However, the clearly better results for Labor in Resolve’s federal polls than in other polls makes me more sceptical of this poll. The last Queensland YouGov poll ^[11], in early October, gave the LNP a 52–48 lead.

Labor Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk’s net likeability was down two points since August to -17, while LNP leader David Crisafulli’s net likeability was up two to +9. Crisafulli led Palaszczuk as preferred premier by 39–34 (37–36 previously).

It looks as if Crisafulli is doing much better than expected given voting intentions. It’s rare for an opposition leader to be ahead on preferred premier. There has been recent speculation ^[12] that Palaszczuk could be replaced as Labor leader and premier before the next election.

Labor has governed in Queensland since 2015. Although this poll is more positive for Labor, the overall trend this year has been to the LNP. I believe the LNP is the clear favourite to win the next Queensland election.

Tasmania, WA and the NT

A Tasmanian state EMRS poll ^[13], conducted November 20–27 from a sample of 1,000, gave the Liberals 39% (up one since August), Labor 29% (down three), the Greens 12% (down two) and all Others 19% (up three). Tasmania uses a proportional system for its lower house, so a two party estimate is not applicable.

In May the Liberals slumped to a 36–31 lead over Labor from 42–30 in February, but have since recovered. Incumbent Liberal Jeremy Rockliff led Labor’s Rebecca White as preferred premier by 42–35 (42–39 in August).

The Western Australian state redistribution has been finalised. These boundaries will apply to lower house seats contested at the March 2025 WA election. The Poll Bludger ^[14] said the draft redistribution’s plan to merge two rural seats and create a new urban seat has been maintained.

Very large notional Labor margins in many seats reflect Labor’s record 69.7–30.3 landslide at the 2021 WA election ^[15], in which they won 53 of the 59 lower house seats. Labor is virtually certain to lose many seats in 2025.

A Redbridge Northern Territory poll ^[16], conducted November 16–18 from a sample of 601, gave the Country Liberal Party 40.6% of the primary vote, Labor 19.7%, the Greens 13.1%, the Shooters 9.4% and independents 14.9%. No two party estimate was provided.

If these results were replicated at the next NT election ^[17] in August 2024, the incumbent Labor government would be defeated. There were similar results for federal NT voting intentions.