As he looks to his own coming wrestle with One Nation in the May 9 Farrer byelection, Angus Taylor can only take from Saturday’s South Australian result a sense of deep trepidation.

One Nation drove a front-end loader through the conservative vote in the state election, slicing it in half and gathering up a higher primary vote than the Liberals. It is likely to do something similar in the federal New South Wales regional seat.

On early indications, the frontrunners in Farrer are One Nation candidate David Farley, an agribusinessman and former National Party member, and independent Michelle Milthorpe, a teacher who won every booth in Albury at the 2025 election.

At present Liberal candidate Raissa Butkowski, chosen only a week ago, appears to be running third in the seat, which was held for a quarter of a century by former Liberal leader Sussan Ley and has never been out of conservative hands.

There are many weeks to go and things may change. But a looming issue for the Liberals is: if the battle is likely to end up between One Nation and Milthorpe, who would they least like to see win it? In other words (after preferencing the Nationals) will their preferences be directed to Farley or Milthorpe?

The Liberals are running around branding Milthorpe – who like “teals” receives money from Climate 200 – as a “teal”, a tag she rejects with some spirit. In fact she looks much more like a country independent in the mould of Helen Haines, who holds the Victorian seat of Indi, across the Murray River from Farrer, than a city “teal”.

Regardless, from the Liberals’ point of view, would it not be better for them, if they can’t clinch the seat themselves, to have it in Milthorpe’s hands than in those of One Nation?

A One Nation victory would do more than take that party’s House of Representives presence from one (Barnaby Joyce) to two. It would give it another big shot of momentum – just as its South Australian performance has – not least ahead of the Victorian election in November, where Pauline Hanson promises a strong presence.

Angus Taylor can’t make any progress without regaining for the Liberals many voters who have gone off to One Nation. Equally, the Liberals can’t come close to winning a federal election without getting back many voters lost on the progressive side.

The Liberals’ decision on Farrer preferences will be much driven by which flank of alienated voters they are most worried about – and here they are clearly more concerned about the right flank. They are desperate to get some of the “base” back, rather than the centrist voters.

The Liberals will also know if they preferenced against One Nation, that party’s attacks on them would only become more ferocious.

As well, many of the Liberal Party branch members in Farrer (those who haven’t deserted) will expect the Liberals to preference the Hansonite.

So the Liberals are probably likely in Farrer to feed the One Nation beast, even if that potentially carries a longer run cost.

South Australia has shown that One Nation doesn’t need to actually secure many seats to be a major player. In SA it will, at most, win a handful of lower house seats. Its power comes from being a party of grievance and disruption.

Nationals leader Matt Canavan has been taking on Hanson very directly but, on the national polls, Taylor shows little sign of being able to effectively counter her and her party. One Nation out-shouts him in articulating grievances, and undermines the Liberal vote with its disruption.

As election analyst Antony Green puts it, One Nation is on a “search and destroy mission” against the conservative parties. Taylor is in desperate need of a strategy to counter the Hansonites; the South Australian result just underscores that need.