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Did the BOM get it wrong on the hot, dry summer? No – predicting chaotic systems is probability, not certainty

  • Written by: Christian Jakob, Director, ARC Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century, Monash University
Did the BOM get it wrong on the hot, dry summer? No – predicting chaotic systems is probability, not certaintyShutterstock

What happened to the scorching El Niño summer we were bracing for? Why has the east coast of Australia been drenched while the north and west gets the heat?

For beachgoers, a wrong weather forecast is annoying. For farmers, it can be very expensive. And for northern Queensland residents surprised by flooding after Cyclone...

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