World

Mon Jul 21

Newspoll and Resolve give Labor big leads as parliament resumes after the election

Written by: Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

With federal parliament to sit for the first time since the election on Tuesday, Newspoll gives Labor a 57–43 lead and Resolve a 56–44 lead. In Tasmania, Labor is a chance to gain a seat despite a 3% slide in their statewide vote.

A national Newspoll ^[1] gave Labor a 57–43 lead (55.2–44.8 to Labor at the May federal election). Fieldwork dates and the sample size were not reported, but it’s likely to have been taken July 14–18 from a sample of about 1,200.

Primary votes were 36% Labor, 29% Coalition, 12% Greens, 8% One Nation and 15% for all Others. This is the lowest Coalition primary vote in Newspoll history that goes back to 1985, and about three points below the Coalition’s result at the election.

Anthony Albanese’s net approval was net zero, a ten-point improvement for him since the final pre-election Newspoll, with 47% both satisfied and dissatisfied. Liberal leader Sussan Ley’s first rating was -7 net approval, with 42% dissatisfied and 35% satisfied. Albanese led Ley as better PM by 52–32.

Here is the graph of Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll. While net zero is better than his negative ratings before the election, it’s a long way from his peak after winning the 2022 election.

Albanese Newspoll ratings.

The lack of a massive surge in net approval for Albanese indicates that Labor’s landslide was more about voters’ dislike for alternatives than their liking of Labor. Peter Dutton and Donald Trump were both big factors in the election result. A DemosAU poll I covered on Saturday ^[2] had voters opposed by 71–19 to a PM like Trump.

Resolve poll

A national Resolve poll ^[3] for Nine newspapers, conducted with unknown fieldwork dates from a sample of 2,311, gave Labor a 56–44 lead by respondent preferences, from primary votes of 35% Labor, 29% Coalition, 12% Greens, 8% One Nation, 8% independents and 8% others.

Albanese’s net approval was +3, with 45% giviing him a good rating and 42% a poor rating. In contrast to Newspoll, Sussan Ley’s first rating in Resolve was +9 (38% good, 29% poor). Albanese led Ley as preferred PM by 40–25.

Asked whether the next year will get better or worse, 28% thought it would be personally better and the same share thought it would be worse. Asked this question on the national outlook, by 42–25 respondents expected it to get worse.

By 33–32, respondents opposed the Liberal party having gender quotas, with Coalition voters opposed by 44–27. Men were opposed by 39–34, while women supported quotas by 30–27.

Labor was thought best to handle economic management ^[4] by 31–30 over the Liberals. On keeping the cost of living low, Labor led by 30–26. The last time Labor led on economic management in Resolve’s monthly polls was July 2023, and the last time they led on cost of living was October 2023.

Tasmanian election updates

Since my election night article ^[5], the count has advanced ^[6] from 63% to 73% of enrolled voters, with all pre-poll votes now counted. These additional votes have not had major impacts on the results.

Postals will be the largest number of outstanding votes still to be counted, but the Tasmanian Electoral Commission won’t begin the postal count until Thursday ^[7] owing to legislative changes that require the TEC to ensure a postal voter hasn’t already voted by other means.

Postals must be received by 10am on July 29 to be included. In Tasmania the Hare-Clark distribution of preferences is done by hand, and will begin after the postal receipt deadline. The TEC expects to have final results by August 2.

Analyst Kevin Bonham has called ^[8] 14 of the 35 seats for the Liberals, ten for Labor, five for the Greens and four for left-wing independents, leaving two undecided. In Lyons, the final seat is likely to be won by a Shooters, Fishers and Farmers candidate.

In Bass ^[9], there’s a complex fight for the last seat between Labor, the Liberals and the Shooters. Labor may benefit from having two candidates in the race who have nearly equal votes, possibly enabling them to win three seats when they only deserve two based on party totals.

If Labor wins the final Bass seat, they would gain a seat in an election where their statewide vote slid 3.1% to 25.9%.