World

Sat Jun 14

As war breaks out with Israel, Iran has run out of good options

Written by: Ali Mamouri, Research Fellow, Middle East Studies, Deakin University

The scale of Israel’s strikes ^[1] on multiple, sensitive Iranian military and nuclear sites on Friday was unprecedented. It was the biggest attack ^[2] on Iran since the Iran–Iraq War in the 1980s.

As expected, Iran responded swiftly ^[3], even as Israeli attacks on its territory continued. The unfolding conflict is reshaping regional dynamics, and Iran now finds itself with no easy path forward.

A person stands near a damaged residential building after an Iranian ballistic missile strike hits Tel Aviv. Abir Sultan/EPA

Strikes come at a delicate time

The timing of the Israeli strikes was highly significant. They came at a critical point in the high-stakes negotiations between Iran and the United States over Tehran’s nuclear program that began earlier this year.

Last week, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) issued a report accusing Tehran of stockpiling ^[4] highly enriched uranium at levels dangerously close to weaponisation.

According to the report, Iran has accumulated ^[5] around 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% purity. If this uranium is further enriched to 90% purity, it would be enough to build nine to ten bombs.

The day before Israel’s attack, the IAEA board of governors also declared ^[6] Iran to be in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for the first time in two decades.

The nuclear talks recently hit a stumbling block over a major issue – the US refusal to allow Iran to enrich any uranium at all ^[7] for a civilian nuclear program.

Iran has previously agreed to cap ^[8] its enrichment at 3.67%^[9] under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, a nuclear deal between Iran, the US and other global powers agreed to in 2015 (and abandoned by the first Trump administration in 2018). But it has refused to relinquish its right to enrichment altogether.

US President Donald Trump reportedly urged ^[10] Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to attack Iran last week, believing he was close to a deal.

But after the attack, Trump ramped up his threats ^[11] on Iran again, urging it to agree to a deal “before there is nothing left”. He called ^[12] the Israeli strikes “excellent” and suggested there was “more to come”.

Given this context, it is understandable why Iran does not view the US as an impartial mediator. In response, Iran suspended its negotiations with the US, announcing it would skip the sixth round of talks scheduled for Sunday.

Rather than compelling Iran to agree to a deal, the excessive pressure could risk pushing Iran towards a more extreme stance instead.

While Iranian officials have denied any intention to develop a military nuclear program, they have warned that continued Israeli attacks and US pressure might force Tehran to reconsider ^[13] as a deterrence mechanism.

Why surrender could spell the regime’s end

On several occasions, Trump has insisted ^[15] he is not seeking “regime change” in Iran. He has repeatedly claimed he wants to see Iran be “successful ^[16]” – the only requirement is for it to accept a US deal.

However, in Iran’s view, the US proposal is not viewed as a peace offer, but as a blueprint for surrender. And the fear is this would ultimately pave the way for regime change under the guise of diplomacy.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei responded to the latest US proposal by insisting that uranium enrichment remains a “red line”^[17] for Iran. Abandoning this right from the Iranian perspective would only embolden its adversaries to escalate their pressure on the regime and make further demands – such as dismantling Iran’s missile program.

The fear in Tehran is this could push the country into a defenceless state without a way to deter future Israeli strikes.

Furthermore, capitulating to the US terms could ignite domestic backlash on two fronts: from an already growing opposition movement, and from the regime’s base of loyal supporters, who would see any retreat as a betrayal.

In this context, many in Iran’s leadership believe that giving in to Trump’s terms would not avert regime change – it would hasten it.

Iranian Red Crescent Society rescuers work at the scene of an Israeli strike in Tehran on June 13. Iranian Red Crescent Society/AP

What options remain for Iran now?

Caught between escalating pressure and existential threats, Iran finds itself with few viable options other than to project strength. It has already begun to pursue this strategy by launching retaliatory missile strikes at Israeli cities.

Israeli rescue teams at the site where an Iranian ballistic missile hit residential buildings in Rishon LeZion, near Tel Aviv. Abir Sultan/EPA

This response has been much stronger than the relatively contained tit-for-tat strikes Israel and Iran engaged in last year. Iran’s strikes have caused considerable damage ^[18] to government and residential areas in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.

Iran sees no alternative but to push forward, having already been drawn into open confrontation. Any sign of weakness would severely undermine the regime’s legitimacy at home and embolden its adversaries abroad.

Moreover, Tehran is betting on Trump’s aversion to foreign wars. Iranian leaders believe the US is neither prepared nor willing to enter another costly conflict in the region – one that could disrupt global trade and jeopardise Trump’s recent economic partnerships with Persian Gulf states.

Therefore, Iran’s leadership likely believes that by standing firm now, the conflict will be limited, so long as the US stays on the sidelines. And then, Iran’s leaders would try to return to the negotiating table, in their view, from a position of strength.