Thanks to an unprecedented lift in public funding in the 2020s, an extra 55,000 new, good quality homes around Australia will be available to people on the lowest incomes by 2030. That’s almost triple the increase of 20,000 homes in the previous decade.

Residents in these modern “social^[1]” homes will generally pay only 25% of their income in rent. Social housing^[2] refers to government-subsidised homes, with below market rents.

You’d think federal and state politicians would be shouting about an extra 55,000 social homes by 2030 from those new rooftops.

But, surprisingly, there are no official projections on how many more total dwellings we’ll have in coming years, thanks to recently boosted investment.

For the first time, our new research^[3] fills this gap. It shows that even with the recent investment boom, we’re still not building enough to cut the backlog of need – leaving hundreds of thousands of Australians without an adequate, affordable home.

What’s being built vs demolished

Up until now, we’ve known how many social homes^[4] Australia has at the end of each year. Remarkably, though, there is still no national data series tracking social housing in greater detail: showing the balance between annual construction, acquisitions and losses.

Filling this gap, our new research^[5] reveals around 70,000 new “social” homes are due to built across Australia during the 2020s – a number not seen since the 1980s.

However, many new social housing projects involve replacing ageing public housing^[6]. So, along the way, 15,000 older homes will also be lost, mainly when large public housing estates in Sydney^[7] and Melbourne^[8] are demolished.

After allowing for these demolitions and sales, we found Australia’s total stock of social housing will increase by a total of 55,000 by 2030. That’s up 13% compared to what we had in 2020.

Who’s building the most?

A substantial share of this new housing comes from the Albanese government’s headline initiative, the Housing Australia Future Fund^[9].

The fund is set to deliver 20,000 new social homes by 2029 (as well as 20,000 more “affordable^[10]” units targeted at low-income renters).

Strikingly, though, we found^[11] even more social housing will be delivered by state and territory government-funded programs across the decade. They’re projected to contribute about two-thirds (64%) of all social housing construction from 2020 to 2030.

Overall, the standouts have been Tasmania and Victoria. Between 2020 and 2025, they each built enough to increase the overall share of social housing within their states.

Victoria led the way in 2020, announcing^[12] its Big Housing Build^[13] program to initially construct 12,000 dwellings. More than three-quarters of them are social housing, while the rest are affordable rentals.

Since then, most states have followed suit^[14], although generally on a smaller scale.

In the Australian Capital Territory and New South Wales, new construction barely exceeded stock losses in the first half of the decade. In NSW, substantially ramped-up spending is only now flowing through.

In South Australia, more public housing units were sold or demolished than new social homes added.

Historically, state governments have generally invested in new social housing through the proceeds of land and property sales, or as a matching contribution alongside Commonwealth funds.

So it’s quite a big deal that, since 2020, most states have stepped up to do a lot more.

Why Australia is not keeping up

While we’re building far more than we did from 2000 to 2020, it’s still not enough.

Australia’s 13% increase in social housing this decade matches projected national household growth^[15] to 2030. In other words, what we’re building as a nation now is only enough to stop the share of social housing in Australia shrinking further.

Currently the sector accounts for only about 4% of all occupied dwellings in Australia, down from 6% in the mid-1990s.

In contrast, the average across similar wealthy OECD^[16] nations is 7%^[17].

437,000 reasons to build more

Social housing plays a vital role^[18] in the housing system. It prevents and resolves homelessness^[19]. It also minimises harms including re-offending^[20], and helps stabilise^[21] the wider housing market.

The projected net increase of 55,000 dwellings by the end of the decade is striking. Yet it pales alongside the estimate that 437,000 households^[22] had an “unmet need” for social housing on census night in 2021. That unmet need means they were either homeless at the time, or very low-income renters in rental stress^[23].

The revival of public investment in social housing this decade is a notable policy reversal. But greater action is needed.

Our report finds^[24] we need clearer, more consistent rules for social housing providers and residents. These rules have remained neglected for decades.

More importantly, none of the current programs – state, territory or federal – come with committed funding beyond 2030. Australian governments need to extend recent investment into the next decade and beyond at similar, or expanded, levels.

The post-1990s history of social housing in Australia has seen gradual decline, punctuated by occasional bursts of activity, like the Rudd-era response to the global financial crisis of 2008.

For the future, we need assurance that stated government commitments are being met. That means starting to officially, transparently track social housing construction in more detail at a national level.

Thanks to Peter Mares^[25] for his input into this story.

References

1. ^{^} social (www.ahuri.edu.au)
2. ^{^} Social housing (www.ahuri.edu.au)
3. ^{^} new research (www.unsw.edu.au)
4. ^{^} social homes (www.pc.gov.au)
5. ^{^} our new research (www.unsw.edu.au)
6. ^{^} replacing ageing public housing (link.springer.com)
7. ^{^} Sydney (theconversation.com)
8. ^{^} Melbourne (theconversation.com)
9. ^{^} Housing Australia Future Fund (www.housingaustralia.gov.au)
10. ^{^} affordable (www.ahuri.edu.au)
11. ^{^} we found (www.unsw.edu.au)
12. ^{^} announcing (www.premier.vic.gov.au)
13. ^{^} Big Housing Build (www.homes.vic.gov.au)
14. ^{^} followed suit (homelessnessaustralia.org.au)
15. ^{^} projected national household growth (www.abs.gov.au)
16. ^{^} OECD (www.oecd.org)
17. ^{^} 7% (webfs.oecd.org)
18. ^{^} a vital role (nhsac.gov.au)
19. ^{^} prevents and resolves homelessness (doi.org)
20. ^{^} re-offending (www.ahuri.edu.au)
21. ^{^} stabilise (theconversation.com)
22. ^{^} 437,000 households (www.unsw.edu.au)
23. ^{^} rental stress (www.ahuri.edu.au)
24. ^{^} Our report finds (www.unsw.edu.au)
25. ^{^} Peter Mares (theconversation.com)