Why the Prevailing RBA Mortgage Interest Rates Are Not to Blame for the Continuing Rise in Residential Dwelling Prices

Australia’s housing market remains one of the most debated economic issues of the decade. Despite successive Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate hikes aimed at cooling demand, residential dwelling prices across most capital cities and many regional centres continue to rise. This has led to an ongoing narrative that mortgage rates—or the RBA itself—are directly responsible for pushing housing affordability out of reach. While interest rates certainly influence borrowing capacity, they are not the primary driver behind the sustained escalation in property values. The structural, demographic, and policy-related factors underpinning Australia’s housing market tell a far more complex story.

The Mechanics of Interest Rates and Housing Demand

Interest rates affect the cost of servicing debt. When the RBA increases the cash rate, banks lift their variable mortgage rates, which reduces how much households can borrow. In theory, this should dampen housing demand, cool buyer enthusiasm, and place downward pressure on prices. This was evident in parts of 2022 and 2023, when price growth slowed briefly as borrowing power contracted.

Yet the housing market has proven resilient. In 2024 and 2025, dwelling values resumed an upward trajectory despite rates reaching levels unseen for over a decade. This persistence indicates that while interest rates influence affordability and sentiment, they are not the root cause of price growth.

Supply Constraints as the Dominant Factor

Australia’s chronic undersupply of housing is the central force sustaining upward price pressure. Several supply-side dynamics are at play:

1. Population Growth and Migration – Australia’s strong population growth, especially driven by international migration, has rapidly increased demand for housing. New arrivals often settle in major cities, where supply is already constrained.

2. Planning and Zoning Restrictions – Complex local government planning processes, height restrictions, and slow rezoning approvals limit the pace of new housing supply, especially in high-demand areas close to jobs and infrastructure.

3. Construction Costs and Labour Shortages – Material inflation, rising wages in the construction sector, and builder insolvencies have slowed the completion of projects. Many developers have postponed or cancelled projects because pre-sold apartments and houses no longer cover ballooning build costs.

4. Low Rental Vacancy Rates – With vacancy rates at historic lows, investors and first-home buyers compete fiercely for available stock. This fuels both rental inflation and property price increases, regardless of mortgage servicing costs.

Simply put, no matter the level of interest rates, when demand continually outpaces supply, prices have an inherent upward trajectory.

The Role of Government Incentives and Policy

Government policy has often had the unintended effect of inflating demand rather than alleviating supply shortages.

• First Home Buyer Grants and Stamp Duty Concessions increase purchasing power and pull demand forward, but they do little to improve the stock of homes.

• Tax Settings such as negative gearing and capital gains tax concessions encourage property investment, further fuelling demand-side competition.

• Infrastructure Spending increases the desirability of certain suburbs and corridors, adding to land value appreciation.

These factors help explain why prices rise even when mortgage servicing costs become more challenging.

Wealth Effects and Household Behaviour

Another overlooked dimension is the behaviour of households. Despite higher interest rates, many buyers are still willing to stretch their budgets for property.

• Equity Recycling – Existing homeowners with significant equity from years of price growth can upgrade or invest without being as sensitive to interest rates as first-time buyers.

• Parental Assistance – The “Bank of Mum and Dad” remains one of the largest sources of home financing, cushioning younger buyers from mortgage rate shocks.

• Cultural Preferences – In Australia, home ownership is deeply ingrained as a wealth-building and security strategy. Demand is therefore less elastic in the face of higher borrowing costs compared to other countries.

This cultural and behavioural resilience diminishes the dampening effect that higher interest rates are supposed to have.

Global Capital and Investment Trends

Australia is not unique in facing rising dwelling prices despite higher rates. Similar trends are visible in Canada, the UK, and parts of the US. Global capital flows play a role:

• Foreign Investors – Although foreign investment rules have tightened, some overseas buyers still see Australian property as a safe-haven asset.

• Institutional Investment in Rentals – Large funds are increasingly buying residential stock to rent out, constraining supply for owner-occupiers.

These external factors contribute to demand that is largely insensitive to local mortgage rate movements.

Why Blaming the RBA Misses the Point

The RBA’s role is to manage inflation and economic stability, not to fix housing supply. By adjusting the cash rate, it can influence demand in the short term, but it cannot address the underlying structural imbalance between supply and demand.

• If the RBA cut rates drastically, borrowing capacity would increase, and prices would likely surge further.

• If the RBA held rates higher for longer, demand might slow, but supply bottlenecks would still keep prices elevated over the long term.

Ultimately, interest rates are a blunt instrument. They can dampen speculation temporarily but cannot unwind decades of undersupply, policy distortions, and cultural factors that drive Australia’s housing obsession.

The Path Forward

If policymakers are serious about addressing housing affordability, the solution lies beyond the RBA’s remit:

• Boost Housing Supply through streamlined planning approvals, zoning reform, and incentives for build-to-rent and social housing.

• Target Construction Industry Capacity by investing in skills training and stabilising building costs.

• Rethink Demand-Side Subsidies which inflate purchasing power without solving the stock shortage.

• Balance Tax Incentives to reduce speculative investment while ensuring sufficient rental supply.

Without these reforms, the structural drivers of housing price growth will continue, regardless of the prevailing mortgage interest rates.

Conclusion

The resilience of Australia’s residential dwelling prices is not a failure of monetary policy but a reflection of deeper structural realities. While the RBA’s mortgage rates influence short-term affordability, they are not the primary cause of rising housing prices. Supply shortages, policy incentives, demographic trends, and cultural preferences carry far greater weight.

Blaming the RBA is politically convenient, but it distracts from the real challenge: Australia must confront its systemic housing undersupply and reshape policy to build more homes, not just cheaper debt. Until then, dwelling prices will keep climbing—interest rates aside.

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