No winner yet, but Biden more likely to eventually win US election

Owing to the large numbers of mail ballots, counting in some states has been very slow. What we know is that Donald Trump won Florida, Texas, Ohio and Iowa. With the exception of Florida, these states were regarded as only winnable for Biden if he won by a landslide.

Trump is narrowly ahead with almost all votes counted in North Carolina. In Georgia, the New York Times^[1] needle gives Biden a slender 0.5% lead, largely because the remaining votes are from metropolitan Atlanta.

Trump’s win in Florida, where he leads by 3.4% with 96% in, was caused by a massive swing to Trump in Miami-Dade county. Biden only won Miami-Dade^[2] by 7%, compared to Hillary Clinton’s almost 30% margin in 2016^[3]. This county has many Cuban Americans, who far preferred Trump the second time. Trump also greatly overperformed^[4] with Hispanics in Texas.

Biden held the narrowly Clinton states of New Hampshire and Minnesota. The AP and Fox News have called Arizona^[5] for Biden. Biden won Nebraska’s second^[6] Congressional District. Biden is likely to hold Nevada and Maine.

While Trump currently has leads in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, early votes by mail are likely to heavily favour Biden when they are counted in the bigger population centres. If Biden wins two of these three, he would win the Electoral College by a minimum of 270-268 with Arizona, Nevada and Nebraska’s second.

Biden currently leads Trump by 49.8% to 48.5% in the national popular vote. However, Democratic strongholds such as California take four weeks after election day to count all their votes. Biden’s popular vote lead is certain to grow in the coming weeks.

For the most part, the polls understated Trump’s performance, particularly in Florida, Ohio and Iowa. The final Selzer Iowa^[7] poll was the big exception, giving Trump a seven-point lead.

A clue to the closeness of the result was a three-point jump in Trump’s net approval^[8] with likely or registered voters in a week, to -6.9%. It was likely Trump would do better with higher personal ratings.

In the Senate, Republicans lead Democrats by 47 to 46 with seven races uncalled. One Senate race in Georgia will go to a run-off, and the other one could too if Republican David Perdue fails to clear 50%. Democrats are likely to win the Arizona Senate, but Republicans Susan Collins and Thom Tillis are likely to hold Maine and North Carolina respectively.

Pending the one and possibly two runoffs in Georgia, Democrats are likely to gain just one net Senate seat. If Republicans hold both Georgian seats, they would retain a 52-48 Senate majority - a disappointing result for Democrats, who had been given a 75% chance to win the Senate by FiveThirtyEight^[9].

In the House, Democrats have so far lost a net three seats, but would retain a majority with 232 of the 435 seats, down from 235.

Editor’s note: We will continue to update these figures as the vote continues over the coming days.

References

1. ^{^} New York Times (www.nytimes.com)
2. ^{^} Miami-Dade (www.nytimes.com)
3. ^{^} margin in 2016 (en.wikipedia.org)
4. ^{^} greatly overperformed (twitter.com)
5. ^{^} called Arizona (twitter.com)
6. ^{^} Nebraska’s second (electionresults.nebraska.gov)
7. ^{^} Selzer Iowa (www.desmoinesregister.com)
8. ^{^} Trump’s net approval (projects.fivethirtyeight.com)
9. ^{^} FiveThirtyEight (projects.fivethirtyeight.com)